Key Outcomes of COP-29 and Expectations for COP-30

The 29th Session of the UN Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP-29) concluded on November 22, and COP-30 is now in sight. In this Legal Update, we discuss some of the key results of the two-week negotiations, as well as some of the matters expected to be discussed during COP-30, to be held in Belém, Brazil.

As discussed in our first Legal Update, at the opening of the Conference of the Parties Serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA), the CMA agreed to “take note” of two crucial decisions of the Article 6.4 Supervisory Body (the SBM).  However, this did not conclude the work of the CMA as regards Article 6.4.  The CMA “provides guidance” to the SBM, whilst the SBM “supervises the mechanism”.  Discussions continued in order to consider “Further Guidance” on the Article 6.4 mechanism and draft text at the end of week one of COP was forwarded to the CMA for further work during the remainder of the Conference.  Further guidance was eventually formally adopted at the closing plenary of COP29.  

The text provides for a number of clarifications in respect of the authorization process for Article 6.4 activities, clarifications in respect of registries and additional guidance to the SBM in continuing work on the standards for “methodologies” and “removal activities”.    A deadline extension was granted for forestry activities registered under the Kyoto Protocol’s Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), in order to request transition to the Article 6.4 mechanism. The new deadline is December 31, 2025.

Another key outcome of COP was an agreement on the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG), replacing the previous USD 100 billion annual target established in 2015. The new agreement requires (somewhat vaguely) that “all actors” must work together to scale up finance to developing countries to at least USD 1.3 trillion annually by 2035, but stipulates that developed countries are responsible for providing USD 300 billion per year to developing countries—which may come from public or private sources. Developing countries had argued for a requirement for USD 1 trillion in annual financing from developed countries.

With the end of COP-29, attention now turns to COP-30 in Belém, with the expectation that many outstanding issues will be addressed in Brazil. These include:

• Discussions on the implementation of the Global Stocktake recommendations, to align Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement with the goals of the Paris Agreement. The Global Stocktake is a mechanism of the Paris Agreement that allows for the assessment of the collective progress of the Parties in achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement; and
• Efforts to expand climate financing in the so-called “Baku to Belém Roadmap to 1.3T,” especially in light of the divided opinions regarding the results achieved in Baku.

As regards Brazil, its recently-submitted NDC establishes the goal of reducing net greenhouse gas emissions by between 59% and 67% by 2035, compared to 2005 levels. The member countries of the Paris Agreement have until February 2025 to submit new NDCs.

The Environmental, Climate Change and ESG Practice of Tauil & Chequer Advogados in association with Mayer Brown is available to provide further clarification on the subject.